Comparison of pregnancy predictive models applied to women who received IVF/ICSI in Valencia (Spain) using ROC curves

One of the main objectives of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) is the reduction of the number of multiple pregnancies to obtain the highest number of full term pregnancies. Therefore, ART has to select the best quality embryos for transfer. This paper proposes several generalized linear models for the prediction of the implantation potential of embryos taking into account the morphological variables of the embryos and clinical and cycle variables of the woman. Some morphological variables are considered factors for the evaluation of differences between the effect of each variable value on the embryo implantation potential. With this aim in mind, we considered only two embryo transfers for women under 35 who received IVF-ICSI treatment at the “La Fe” Hospital in Valencia from 2001 to 2006. Model validation was carried out using ROC curves. In short, we propose statistical tools which provide a clear framework for decision support for embryologists.